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WEEK 13 • 2025 NFL SEASON

Win The Week

In-depth analysis and predictions for Sport.Fun NFL. Our goal: Top 3 for QB & TE, Top 5 for RB & WR.

72 Players Analyzed
16 Games This Week
4 Positions Covered
Scroll to explore

Top Picks Week 13

Our recommended plays to finish in the top positions

QB

Quarterbacks

Goal: Top 3
#1

Drake Maye

NE
vs NYG
$0.0222
A

Giants are 2-10, Monday Night Football spotlight, Patriots rolling at 10-2. Best value QB in the pool.

Projected 19-24 pts
#2

Lamar Jackson

BAL
vs CIN
$0.0334
A+

Bengals defense in shambles (3-8). CIN gives up 22+ fantasy points per game to QBs. Divisional rivalry motivation.

Projected 22-26 pts
#3

Bo Nix

DEN
@ WAS
$0.0121
B+

Commanders giving up 22.82 PPG to QBs. 4 of last 5 QBs vs WAS scored 28+ points. Broncos are 9-2. Sneaky cheap!

Projected 18-23 pts
RB

Running Backs

Goal: Top 5
#1

Derrick Henry

BAL
vs CIN
$0.0139
A+

"Best fantasy matchup a back could have" - Bengals are 29th in run defense. Heavy volume expected. SMASH play.

Projected 22+ pts
#2

Chase Brown

CIN
vs BAL
$0.0084
B+

"Playing his best ball of the season." Ravens give up points to RBs. Joe Burrow returning helps entire offense. Excellent value!

Projected 14-18 pts
#3

Saquon Barkley

PHI
vs CHI
$0.0175
A-

Bears missing top 2 linebackers. Bounce-back spot after 22-yard Week 12. Buy the dip - great matchup at lower price!

Projected 15-20 pts
#4

TreVeyon Henderson

NE
vs NYG
$0.0092
A

Giants just got torched by Gibbs for 49.9 points. "Look what Gibbs just did to them!" Ample touches expected. Sneaky value.

Projected 14-18 pts
#5

Josh Jacobs

GB
@ DET
$0.0116
B

11 rushing TDs in 10 games this season. Expected to return from injury. Lions beatable on the ground. Good value if healthy.

Projected 15-19 pts
WR

Wide Receivers

Goal: Top 5
#1

Rashee Rice

KC
@ DAL
$0.0139
A

One of only 4 WRs averaging 20+ PPG. "Cowboys can't stop him." Thanksgiving game exposure. Excellent value!

Projected 17-23 pts
#2

Ja'Marr Chase

CIN
vs BAL
$0.0227
A

"Triple Crown" winner last year (127-1,708-17). Joe Burrow returning from injury is MASSIVE. Divisional game = high scoring.

Projected 18-25 pts
#3

Zay Flowers

BAL
vs CIN
$0.0057
A

Great matchup vs Bengals secondary. Only TD this season was Week 1 - due for positive regression. Incredibly cheap!

Projected 12-18 pts
#4

Stefon Diggs

NE
vs NYG
$0.0076
A

Giants are terrible (2-10). Monday Night Football spotlight. Target share can be inconsistent but matchup is pristine.

Projected 12-17 pts
#5

A.J. Brown

PHI
vs CHI
$0.0106
B+

Elite talent at a discount. Black Friday game, national spotlight. Bears secondary is beatable. Offense can be inconsistent.

Projected 14-20 pts
TE

Tight Ends

Goal: Top 3
#1

Mark Andrews

BAL
vs CIN
$0.0098
A+

4 TDs in last 3 games + Bengals give up MOST TE points in NFL (22 PPG). Perfect storm - hot streak meets worst TE defense!

Projected 14-20 pts
#2

Travis Kelce

KC
@ DAL
$0.0100
A

23-299-2 line over last 4 games. Thanksgiving showcase game. Dallas vulnerable to everyone. Kelce's volume and red-zone reliability.

Projected 14-19 pts
#3

Hunter Henry

NE
vs NYG
$0.0088
A

Led ALL TEs with 27.5 fantasy points in Week 12. Giants are 2-10 and terrible against everyone. Hot hand + great matchup + cheap!

Projected 11-16 pts

WR Coverage Analysis

Man vs Zone performance data to exploit defensive schemes

ZONE

Zone Coverage Exploits

Target WRs facing zone-heavy defenses

Rashee Rice

KC
@ DAL (80.1% Zone)
Zone YPRR Boost +42%
Zone TPRR Boost +6%

Cowboys play 3rd highest zone rate. Rice ranks 2nd in fantasy vs zone. Elite 35% TPRR (4th) and 3.90 YPRR (2nd) against zone.

SMASH PLAY

Zay Flowers

BAL
vs CIN (68% Zone)
Bengals Zone Rate 68%
Price $0.0057

Bengals play heavy zone coverage. Flowers thrives finding soft spots. Elite value at current price - due for TDs in divisional matchup.

GREAT VALUE

Courtland Sutton

DEN
@ WAS (Zone Heavy)
WAS vs WRs Generous
Price $0.0063

Commanders defense among most generous to WRs. Sutton's size creates mismatches in zone coverage. Solid value play.

SOLID VALUE

CeeDee Lamb

DAL
vs KC (Thanksgiving)
Zone Separation Elite
Cowboys Offense Struggling

Elite route runner who excels vs zone. Cowboys offense inconsistent limits ceiling, but talent is undeniable in Thanksgiving showcase.

TALENT PLAY
MAN

Man Coverage Beaters

WRs who dominate press/man coverage

Jaylen Waddle

MIA
@ NO (Quincy Riley)
CB Advantage 1.42
Route Versatility High

Best WR/CB matchup advantage (1.42) this week. Riley covers 62% of right-side routes where Waddle excels. Explosive upside.

GREAT MATCHUP

Emeka Egbuka

TB
vs ARI (Max Melton)
CB Advantage 1.23
Slot Routes 51%

Favorable matchup vs Melton. If Mayfield plays, Egbuka has solid floor. Cardinals secondary beatable in the slot.

QB DEPENDENT

Stefon Diggs

NE
vs NYG (MNF)
Giants Pass D Terrible
Price $0.0076

Giants secondary is exploitable. Diggs' route-running creates separation vs man coverage. Monday Night spotlight game with value pricing.

SMASH PLAY
SHADOW

Shadow Coverage Watch

WRs facing elite CB shadows - proceed with caution

Rome Odunze

CHI
@ PHI (Quinyon Mitchell)
Mitchell Shadow Avg 11.8 PPG
Post-Bye PPG 9.1

Mitchell has shadowed in 6 games. Odunze struggling post-bye with 44% catch rate. Eagles 3rd-best vs WRs (1.47 PPT). Bust risk elevated.

AVOID

Amon-Ra St. Brown

DET
vs GB (Keisean Nixon)
Packers Pass D Improved
Price $0.0240

Packers secondary has improved this season. St. Brown is a PPR monster but priced at premium. Thanksgiving game could see defensive focus on him.

HIGH PRICE

Nico Collins

HOU
@ IND (Elite CB Room)
Perimeter Routes 79%
Colts CB Room Best in NFL

Colts have perhaps best CB room in NFL. Collins' 79% perimeter routes face elite coverage. Tough matchup despite his elite talent.

TOUGH MATCHUP

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

SEA
@ MIN (Byron Murphy)
Vikings Pass D Solid
Price $0.0300

Vikings secondary is respectable. JSN priced as elite but facing tough coverage. High price + tough matchup = concerning combo.

OVERPRICED

Week 13 Coverage Tendencies

Defense Zone % Man % Target
DAL Cowboys 80.1% 19.9% Rice, Kelce
CIN Bengals 68% 32% Flowers, Andrews
NYG Giants 65% 35% Diggs, H. Henry
WAS Commanders 62% 38% Sutton
PHI Eagles 45% 55% Odunze (avoid)
MIN Vikings 48% 52% JSN (overpriced)

Week 13 Power Rankings

Click any player to expand detailed matchup analysis

Sort by:
1 QB

Lamar Jackson

BAL vs CIN
$0.0334 A+

MVP candidate vs worst defense. Bengals allow 22+ PPG to QBs. Thanksgiving primetime showcase.

+
Why He's #1
  • Most dangerous dual-threat QB in football
  • Bengals defense ranks bottom-10 vs QBs over past 3 games
  • Divisional rivalry on Thanksgiving primetime = maximum motivation
  • Elite rushing floor keeps ceiling sky-high
  • Recent struggles (153 yards vs Jets) set up massive bounce-back
Matchup Analysis
Matchup Score 97.8/100
Projected Points 24-32 pts
Ceiling 40+ pts
SMASH PLAY - ELITE CEILING
2 QB

Jalen Hurts

PHI vs CHI
$0.0217 A+

Black Friday showcase. Bulletproof rushing TD upside. 4 straight seasons with 10+ rushing TDs.

+
Why He's #2
  • Bulletproof due to red-zone rushing - elite TD upside
  • Bears defense improved but not to Eagles' 2024 level
  • Philadelphia at home with rest advantage
  • Black Friday national spotlight game
  • Averaging 22+ fantasy PPG this season
Matchup Analysis
Matchup Score 95.2/100
Projected Points 24-30 pts
Rush TD Upside 2-3 TDs
ELITE DUAL-THREAT - LOCKED IN
3 QB

Josh Allen

BUF @ PIT
$0.0344 A

Bounce-back spot after 8.12-point dud. Steelers defense overrated. 10 days rest.

+
Why He's #3
  • THE QB1 - Matchup-proof elite talent with massive ceiling
  • Failed to throw TD pass in Week 12 - bounce-back time
  • Steelers defense overrated and exploitable
  • Full 10 days of rest should reset Buffalo's offense
  • Elite rushing floor keeps floor high even in tough spots
Matchup Analysis
Matchup Score 88.6/100
Projected Points 22-30 pts
Ceiling 40+ pts
ELITE TALENT - BOUNCE BACK
4 QB

Patrick Mahomes

KC @ DAL
$0.0356 A+

Cowboys allow 24.8 PPG to QBs - HIGHEST in league. Thanksgiving primetime magic.

+
Why He's #4
  • Cowboys defense allows 24.8 fantasy PPG to QBs - HIGHEST IN LEAGUE
  • Kansas City offense getting healthier - Rashee Rice elite target
  • Thanksgiving national spotlight = Mahomes primetime magic
  • Averaged just 14.6 points last month - due for explosion
  • Zero QB1 finishes recently - that changes Thanksgiving
Matchup Analysis
Matchup Score 92.4/100
Projected Points 22-28 pts
TD Ceiling 4+ TDs
THANKSGIVING FEAST - SMASH
5 QB

Drake Maye

NE vs NYG
$0.0222 A+

Giants defense exploitable everywhere. MNF spotlight. Patriots 7.5-pt favorites.

+
Why He's #5
  • Elite dual-threat weapon emerging as franchise QB
  • Giants defense exploitable across all positions
  • Patriots offense runs through Maye now
  • Monday Night Football primetime spotlight
  • 20+ rushing yards floor adds fantasy points via legs
Matchup Analysis
Matchup Score 94.1/100
Projected Points 22-28 pts
Value Rating ELITE
BEST VALUE QB - MNF SHOWCASE
6 QB

Bo Nix

DEN @ WAS
$0.0121 A

Fresh off bye. WAS allows MOST fantasy points per pass attempt all season.

+
Why He's #6
  • Coming off bye week with extra rest and preparation
  • Commanders allow MOST fantasy points per pass attempt (0.60)
  • Seven QBs off bye facing top-8 matchups averaged 20.0 PPG
  • Broncos 9-2 with playoff push momentum
  • Nix averaging 18.0 PPG with upside here
Matchup Analysis
Matchup Score 85.3/100
Projected Points 18-22 pts
Value Rating SNEAKY
SNEAKY VALUE - FRESH OFF BYE
7 QB

Jared Goff

DET vs GB
$0.0122 B+

Thanksgiving showcase. Elite weapons. Home dome advantage vs rival Packers.

+
Why He's #7
  • Thanksgiving home game vs division rival
  • Elite weapons: St. Brown, Gibbs, Montgomery
  • Lions averaging 32+ PPG this season
  • High-scoring environment expected
  • No rushing upside limits ceiling vs elite QBs
Matchup Analysis
Matchup Score 78.4/100
Projected Points 18-24 pts
TD Upside 3-4 TDs
HOME THANKSGIVING - SOLID
8 QB

Justin Herbert

LAC vs LV
$0.0143 B

Solid floor vs Raiders. Chargers run-first limits ceiling but safe option.

+
Why He's #8
  • Solid floor vs beatable Raiders defense
  • Chargers run-first approach limits passing volume
  • Home game with favorable conditions
  • Limited rushing upside caps ceiling
  • Safe QB2 option with steady floor
Matchup Analysis
Matchup Score 75.2/100
Projected Points 16-22 pts
Floor Safe
SAFE FLOOR - LIMITED CEILING
9 QB

Dak Prescott

DAL vs KC
$0.0149 C+

Thanksgiving stage but Cowboys offense struggling. Chiefs D solid. Boom/bust.

+
Why He's #9
  • Thanksgiving spotlight game at home
  • Chiefs defense not elite vs pass
  • Cowboys will be trailing = more pass attempts
  • CeeDee Lamb provides elite target
  • Cowboys offense inconsistent all season
Matchup Analysis
Matchup Score 65.8/100
Projected Points 16-24 pts
Risk Level HIGH
BOOM/BUST - HIGH VARIANCE
10 QB

Caleb Williams

CHI @ PHI
$0.0120 C

Eagles D is elite. Bears offense struggling. Tough spot for rookie.

+
Why He's #10
  • Eagles defense elite - tough matchup
  • Bears offense inconsistent all season
  • Road game in hostile environment
  • Limited weapons outside DJ Moore
  • Rookie still developing in NFL
Matchup Analysis
Matchup Score 55.2/100
Projected Points 12-18 pts
Risk Level HIGH
TOUGH MATCHUP - AVOID
11 QB

Baker Mayfield

TB vs ARI
$0.0094 B

Cardinals secondary beatable. Monitor shoulder injury status closely.

+
Why He's #11
  • Cardinals secondary beatable
  • Tampa Bay at home needing wins
  • Shoulder injury - monitor status
  • Mike Evans provides elite target
  • Passing volume should be solid if healthy
Matchup Analysis
Matchup Score 72.1/100
Projected Points 16-22 pts
Injury Status MONITOR
INJURY WATCH - IF HEALTHY SOLID
12 QB

Jordan Love

GB @ DET
$0.0084 C

Road division game vs elite Lions. High-scoring potential but risky.

+
Why He's #12
  • Road division game in hostile environment
  • Lions defense improved this season
  • High-scoring game could help
  • Inconsistent all season
  • Limited rushing upside
Matchup Analysis
Matchup Score 58.4/100
Projected Points 14-20 pts
Risk Level HIGH
RISKY ROAD SPOT - VOLATILE
1 RB

Derrick Henry

BAL vs CIN
$0.0139 A+

Bengals are #1 WORST vs RBs. Historic matchup opportunity. 2-3 TD ceiling.

+
Why He's #1
  • BENGALS ARE #1 WORST VS RBs - Historic opportunity
  • Cincinnati allows 32+ fantasy PPG to running backs
  • Goal-line lock - multiple TD upside every game
  • Lamar Jackson opens massive rushing lanes
  • Thanksgiving night national spotlight
Matchup Analysis
Matchup Score 96.8/100
Projected Points 20-28 pts
TD Ceiling 2-3 TDs
SMASH PLAY - HISTORIC MATCHUP
2 RB

Saquon Barkley

PHI vs CHI
$0.0175 B+

Bears run D improved but Barkley's receiving saves value. Black Friday showcase.

+
Why He's #2
  • RECEIVING UPSIDE - Receptions saving fantasy value
  • Bears run defense improved but still beatable
  • Eagles heavily favored = positive game script
  • Black Friday national spotlight
  • 20-25 touch floor regardless of matchup
Matchup Analysis
Matchup Score 78.4/100
Projected Points 16-22 pts
PPR Boost 4-7 rec
PPR MACHINE - RECEIVING SAVES HIM
3 RB

Jahmyr Gibbs

DET vs GB
$0.0300 A

55.4 pts in Week 12! Thanksgiving showcase. Elite dual-threat in high-scoring game.

+
Why He's #3
  • 55.40 FANTASY POINTS IN WEEK 12 - Elite explosion
  • Thanksgiving Day national spotlight vs rival Packers
  • Lions' high-scoring offense (32+ PPG) creates opportunities
  • Elite receiving work = PPR gold
  • Only 10.9 pts in Week 1 vs GB - revenge mode
Matchup Analysis
Matchup Score 88.3/100
Projected Points 20-28 pts
Ceiling 40+ pts
THANKSGIVING SHOWCASE - ELITE
4 RB

De'Von Achane

MIA vs NO
$0.0197 A

165 total yards in Week 12. Saints defense exploitable. Elite dual-threat.

+
Why He's #4
  • DUAL-THREAT ELITE - Can reach 2,000 yards from scrimmage
  • Saints defense ranks bottom-10 vs RBs
  • 120 rushing + 45 receiving yards in Week 12
  • Home game with favorable game script expected
  • Dolphins offense runs through Achane
Matchup Analysis
Matchup Score 85.7/100
Projected Points 18-26 pts
Ceiling 35+ pts
HOME SMASH - ELITE UPSIDE
5 RB

Jonathan Taylor

IND vs HOU
$0.0297 B+

Workhorse volume overcomes tough matchup. Bell cow with all goal-line carries.

+
Why He's #5
  • WORKHORSE VOLUME - Colts' entire offensive identity
  • Texans defense excellent but JT volume makes him startable
  • All goal-line carries - no vultures
  • Averaging 21/123/1 rushing with 4 catches
  • Expect 25+ touches
Matchup Analysis
Matchup Score 76.8/100
Projected Points 18-24 pts
TD Ceiling 2 TDs
VOLUME OVERCOMES - LOCKED IN
6 RB

Christian McCaffrey

SF @ CLE
$0.0297 A-

Matchup-proof workhorse. Browns D tough but CMC transcends. 30+ touch ceiling.

+
Why He's #6
  • THE RB1 - Matchup-proof workhorse
  • 142 total yards + TD on 24 carries + 7 receptions Week 12
  • Browns defense tough but CMC transcends matchups
  • 49ers lean on CMC regardless of opponent
  • 5 games with 30+ touches this season
Matchup Analysis
Matchup Score 82.4/100
Projected Points 24-32 pts
Floor ELITE
MATCHUP-PROOF - SET & FORGET
1 WR

Ja'Marr Chase

CIN @ BAL
$0.0227 A+

JOE BURROW BACK! Triple Crown winner. Divisional rivalry on Thanksgiving night.

+
Why He's #1
  • JOE BURROW RETURNING - Elite QB back
  • "Triple Crown" winner last year (127-1,708-17)
  • Divisional rivalry on Thanksgiving primetime
  • Ravens secondary beatable
  • Chase averaging 25+ PPG when Burrow healthy
Matchup Analysis
Matchup Score 95.2/100
Projected Points 22-30 pts
Ceiling 40+ pts
BURROW BACK - SMASH PLAY
2 WR

Rashee Rice

KC @ DAL
$0.0139 A+

Cowboys play 80% zone - Rice ranks #2 vs zone. Thanksgiving feast incoming.

+
Why He's #2
  • Cowboys play 3rd highest zone rate (80.1%)
  • Rice ranks 2nd in fantasy vs zone coverage
  • Elite 35% TPRR (4th) and 3.90 YPRR (2nd) vs zone
  • Thanksgiving national spotlight
  • 20+ PPG in favorable matchups
Matchup Analysis
Matchup Score 94.7/100
Projected Points 20-28 pts
Zone Boost +42%
ZONE BEATER - SMASH PLAY
3 WR

A.J. Brown

PHI vs CHI
$0.0106 A

Elite talent at discount. Black Friday showcase. Bears secondary beatable.

+
Why He's #3
  • Elite WR1 at discounted price point
  • Black Friday national spotlight game
  • Bears secondary improved but still exploitable
  • Hurts' favorite deep target
  • TD upside every single week
Matchup Analysis
Matchup Score 88.4/100
Projected Points 18-26 pts
TD Ceiling 2 TDs
ELITE AT DISCOUNT - SMASH
4 WR

Amon-Ra St. Brown

DET vs GB
$0.0240 A-

PPR monster. Thanksgiving showcase. High-scoring game expected vs Packers.

+
Why He's #4
  • PPR machine - elite target share
  • Thanksgiving Day national spotlight
  • Lions offense averaging 32+ PPG
  • High-scoring divisional rivalry
  • Premium price but elite production
Matchup Analysis
Matchup Score 82.1/100
Projected Points 18-24 pts
Target Share 25%+
PPR KING - THANKSGIVING
5 WR

Stefon Diggs

NE vs NYG
$0.0076 A+

Giants defense is TERRIBLE. MNF spotlight. Elite value at price.

+
Why He's #5
  • Giants secondary is exploitable everywhere
  • Monday Night Football spotlight
  • Drake Maye's top target
  • Elite route runner vs weak coverage
  • Outstanding value at $0.0076
Matchup Analysis
Matchup Score 92.3/100
Projected Points 16-24 pts
Value Rating ELITE
SMASH VALUE - MNF SHOWCASE
6 WR

Zay Flowers

BAL vs CIN
$0.0057 A+

GREAT VALUE. Bengals play 68% zone. Due for TDs in divisional game.

+
Why He's #6
  • Bengals play heavy zone coverage (68%)
  • Flowers thrives finding soft spots in zone
  • Thanksgiving primetime spotlight
  • Due for TDs - been unlucky
  • Elite value at $0.0057
Matchup Analysis
Matchup Score 90.2/100
Projected Points 14-22 pts
Zone Rate 68%
ZONE EXPLOIT - GREAT VALUE
7 WR

Justin Jefferson

MIN @ SEA
$0.0126 B+

Elite talent. Seahawks secondary beatable. Safe floor with ceiling.

+
Why He's #7
  • Elite WR talent - top-3 in NFL
  • Seahawks secondary exploitable
  • Sam Darnold's favorite target
  • High floor with elite ceiling
  • Road game but talent overcomes
Matchup Analysis
Matchup Score 75.8/100
Projected Points 16-24 pts
Floor HIGH
ELITE TALENT - SAFE PLAY
8 WR

Courtland Sutton

DEN @ WAS
$0.0063 A

WAS gives up big games to WRs. Zone-heavy defense. Solid value.

+
Why He's #8
  • Commanders allow most fantasy pts per pass attempt
  • Broncos fresh off bye week
  • Sutton's size creates mismatches
  • Bo Nix connection improving
  • Great value at $0.0063
Matchup Analysis
Matchup Score 85.1/100
Projected Points 14-20 pts
Value Rating STRONG
ZONE EXPLOIT - SOLID VALUE
9 WR

Puka Nacua

LA @ CAR
$0.0251 B

Panthers stout vs pass surprisingly. Floor play but expensive.

+
Why He's #9
  • Elite volume - Stafford's top target
  • Panthers pass D surprisingly decent
  • High floor but matchup not ideal
  • Premium price limits value
  • Safe but not smash spot
Matchup Analysis
Matchup Score 72.4/100
Projected Points 14-20 pts
Price Concern HIGH
SAFE FLOOR - PRICEY
10 WR

CeeDee Lamb

DAL vs KC
$0.0139 B-

Elite talent but Cowboys offense BAD. Thanksgiving showcase helps.

+
Why He's #10
  • Elite route runner - top-5 talent
  • Cowboys offense struggling badly
  • Thanksgiving showcase could spark team
  • Chiefs defense solid but beatable
  • Talent play despite situation
Matchup Analysis
Matchup Score 68.2/100
Projected Points 12-20 pts
Situation POOR
TALENT PLAY - RISKY SITUATION
11 WR

Drake London

ATL @ NYJ
$0.0090 B

Consistent volume. Jets secondary decent. Safe floor play.

+
Why He's #11
  • Consistent target share leader
  • Jets secondary decent but beatable
  • Cousins' favorite red zone target
  • Safe floor every week
  • Moderate ceiling in this spot
Matchup Analysis
Matchup Score 74.1/100
Projected Points 12-18 pts
Floor SAFE
CONSISTENT - SAFE FLOOR
12 WR

Ladd McConkey

LAC vs LV
$0.0091 B+

Consistent targets. Raiders secondary beatable. Solid floor.

+
Why He's #12
  • Herbert's favorite slot target
  • Raiders secondary exploitable
  • Consistent target share
  • Home game advantage
  • Solid floor with TD upside
Matchup Analysis
Matchup Score 76.3/100
Projected Points 12-18 pts
Consistency HIGH
SLOT SPECIALIST - SOLID
13 WR

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

SEA vs MIN
$0.0300 C+

Vikings secondary solid. OVERPRICED at $0.0300. Tough matchup.

+
Why He's #13
  • Elite talent but tough matchup
  • Vikings secondary is respectable
  • HIGHEST PRICED WR - value concern
  • Byron Murphy matchup difficult
  • Better options at lower prices
Matchup Analysis
Matchup Score 62.4/100
Projected Points 12-18 pts
Value POOR
OVERPRICED - FADE FOR VALUE
14 WR

Jaylen Waddle

MIA vs NO
$0.0078 B+

Best CB matchup advantage this week (1.42). Boom/bust profile.

+
Why He's #14
  • Best WR/CB matchup advantage (1.42)
  • Quincy Riley covers his routes
  • Explosive upside any week
  • Tua struggles limit floor
  • Boom/bust but leaning boom here
Matchup Analysis
Matchup Score 78.2/100
Projected Points 10-22 pts
CB Advantage 1.42
BOOM/BUST - GREAT CB MATCHUP
15 WR

Michael Pittman Jr.

IND vs HOU
$0.0084 B

WR1 on team. Texans secondary solid. Floor play.

+
Why He's #15
  • Clear WR1 on Colts offense
  • Texans secondary is decent
  • Anthony Richardson connection growing
  • Safe floor but limited ceiling
  • Steady production expected
Matchup Analysis
Matchup Score 70.1/100
Projected Points 10-16 pts
Floor SAFE
WR1 VOLUME - SAFE FLOOR
16 WR

Nico Collins

HOU @ IND
$0.0085 C

Elite talent but Colts CB room is BEST in NFL. Tough shadow matchup.

+
Why He's #16
  • Elite WR1 talent when healthy
  • Colts have best CB room in NFL
  • 79% perimeter routes = shadow coverage
  • Talent vs elite defense
  • Monitor health status
Matchup Analysis
Matchup Score 58.4/100
Projected Points 10-18 pts
Shadow Risk HIGH
TOUGH MATCHUP - TALENT PLAY
17 WR

Emeka Egbuka

TB vs ARI
$0.0091 B

Cardinals secondary beatable. QB-dependent - monitor Mayfield status.

+
Why He's #17
  • Cardinals secondary exploitable
  • If Mayfield plays - solid floor
  • 51% slot routes avoid shadow
  • Home game advantage
  • QB health is key variable
Matchup Analysis
Matchup Score 72.1/100
Projected Points 10-18 pts
QB Status MONITOR
QB DEPENDENT - MONITOR
18 WR

Garrett Wilson

NYJ vs ATL
$0.0041 C+

Jets offense inconsistent. Cheap price has appeal. Boom/bust.

+
Why He's #18
  • Elite talent stuck in bad offense
  • Jets QB situation hurts value
  • Falcons secondary decent
  • Cheapest elite WR on board
  • High variance but price helps
Matchup Analysis
Matchup Score 65.2/100
Projected Points 8-18 pts
Value CHEAP
CHEAP UPSIDE - HIGH VARIANCE
19 WR

Khalil Shakir

BUF @ PIT
$0.0064 C+

Slot role in Bills offense. TD-dependent. Steelers tough vs slot.

+
Why He's #19
  • Bills' primary slot receiver
  • Steelers defense tough overall
  • Josh Allen spreads ball around
  • TD-dependent for upside
  • Low floor, moderate ceiling
Matchup Analysis
Matchup Score 60.4/100
Projected Points 8-14 pts
TD Dependent YES
SLOT ROLE - TD DEPENDENT
20 WR

Rome Odunze

CHI @ PHI
$0.0073 D+

Eagles D elite. Quinyon Mitchell shadow. AVOID this matchup.

+
Why He's #20
  • Quinyon Mitchell shadow expected
  • Mitchell allows just 11.8 PPG
  • Eagles 3rd-best vs WRs (1.47 PPT)
  • Post-bye: 9.1 PPG, 44% catch rate
  • Bust risk extremely elevated
Matchup Analysis
Matchup Score 45.2/100
Projected Points 6-12 pts
Shadow MITCHELL
AVOID - SHADOW MATCHUP
21 WR

Chris Olave

NO @ MIA
$0.0072 D

Saints offense BROKEN. QB situation disaster. Avoid entirely.

+
Why He's #21
  • Saints offense completely broken
  • QB situation is a disaster
  • Dolphins secondary decent
  • No path to consistent production
  • Talent wasted in bad situation
Matchup Analysis
Matchup Score 50.1/100
Projected Points 6-12 pts
Situation AWFUL
AVOID - BROKEN OFFENSE
22 WR

DK Metcalf

PIT vs MIN
$0.0056 D

Vikings have solid pass D. Steelers pass-first helps but tough spot.

+
Why He's #22
  • Vikings secondary respectable
  • Steelers new addition - chemistry building
  • Russell Wilson spreading targets
  • Cheap price offers some appeal
  • High variance in new offense
Matchup Analysis
Matchup Score 48.3/100
Projected Points 8-14 pts
Chemistry BUILDING
NEW TEAM - HIGH VARIANCE
23 WR

Tetairoa McMillan

CAR vs LAR
$0.0076 D

Rookie on bad team. Rams defense decent. Avoid.

+
Why He's #23
  • Rookie still developing
  • Panthers offense struggling
  • Rams defense respectable
  • Limited target share
  • Not ready for fantasy relevance
Matchup Analysis
Matchup Score 52.1/100
Projected Points 6-12 pts
Situation POOR
ROOKIE - AVOID
24 WR

Brian Thomas Jr.

JAC BYE
$0.0043 BYE

ON BYE WEEK. Do not play.

+
Why He's #24
  • Jacksonville on BYE
  • Cannot score points this week
  • DO NOT PLAY
Matchup Analysis
Matchup Score N/A
Projected Points 0 pts
Status BYE
BYE WEEK - DO NOT PLAY
1 TE

Mark Andrews

BAL vs CIN
$0.0098 A+

Bengals allow 22 PPG to TEs - WORST IN NFL. 4 TDs in last 3 games. SMASH.

+
Why He's #1
  • Bengals give up 22 PPG to TEs - WORST IN NFL
  • 4 TDs in last 3 games - HOT STREAK
  • Thanksgiving primetime spotlight
  • Lamar Jackson's favorite red zone target
  • Elite value at $0.0098 price point
Matchup Analysis
Matchup Score 98.1/100
Projected Points 16-24 pts
TD Ceiling 2-3 TDs
BEST TE MATCHUP - SMASH
2 TE

Travis Kelce

KC @ DAL
$0.0100 A+

Cowboys play 80% zone - Kelce thrives. Thanksgiving showcase. 23-299-2 last 4 games.

+
Why He's #2
  • Cowboys play heavy zone - Kelce thrives in zone
  • Thanksgiving national spotlight
  • 23-299-2 over last 4 games - HEATING UP
  • Mahomes' top red zone target
  • Elite floor with high ceiling
Matchup Analysis
Matchup Score 92.4/100
Projected Points 14-22 pts
Zone Exploit HIGH
THANKSGIVING KELCE - SMASH
3 TE

George Kittle

SF @ BUF
$0.0095 A-

Bills allow 7th-most TE points. Kittle is Purdy's safety valve. Potential shootout game.

+
Why He's #3
  • Bills allow 7th-most fantasy points to TEs
  • Brock Purdy's most reliable target
  • Potential high-scoring affair
  • Elite run blocking + receiving hybrid
  • Always a threat for explosive plays
Matchup Analysis
Matchup Score 85.2/100
Projected Points 12-18 pts
YAC Ability ELITE
ELITE FLOOR - START WITH CONFIDENCE
4 TE

Brock Bowers

LV @ KC
$0.0091 A-

Rookie sensation. Target machine. On pace for TE rookie records. Chiefs allow TE points.

+
Why He's #4
  • On pace for TE rookie records
  • Target share is MASSIVE (9+ per game)
  • Chiefs allow 6th-most TE targets
  • PPR machine - elite floor
  • Only thing keeping Raiders relevant
Matchup Analysis
Matchup Score 82.5/100
Projected Points 11-17 pts
Target Share 30%+
VOLUME KING - ELITE FLOOR
5 TE

Hunter Henry

NE @ NYG
$0.0088 A-

Giants D is BROKEN. Henry is Drake Maye's security blanket. 8 TDs on season!

+
Why He's #5
  • Giants defense is horrendous (2-10)
  • Drake Maye's favorite target
  • 8 TDs on the season - TD magnet
  • Red zone specialist
  • Consistent volume in passing game
Matchup Analysis
Matchup Score 80.1/100
Projected Points 10-16 pts
TD Upside HIGH
GIANTS SMASH - TD MACHINE
6 TE

Trey McBride

ARI vs SEA
$0.0082 B+

Target hog. Seahawks allow middle-of-pack TE points. Safe floor play.

+
Why He's #6
  • Kyler Murray's most reliable target
  • 8+ targets per game average
  • Seahawks middle-of-pack vs TEs
  • Divisional game - competitive
  • Safe floor with solid ceiling
Matchup Analysis
Matchup Score 75.3/100
Projected Points 9-14 pts
Volume STEADY
VOLUME PLAY - SAFE FLOOR
7 TE

T.J. Hockenson

MIN @ PIT
$0.0075 B

Back from injury. Sam Darnold connection strong. Steelers tough vs TEs.

+
Why He's #7
  • Still ramping up post-injury
  • Sam Darnold needs safety valve
  • Steelers are tough vs TEs (4th-best)
  • Talent undeniable when healthy
  • Volume will increase as season goes
Matchup Analysis
Matchup Score 72.1/100
Projected Points 7-12 pts
Health RAMPING
SOLID FLOOR - TOUGH MATCHUP
8 TE

David Njoku

CLE @ DEN
$0.0068 B

Browns offense limited. Njoku is best option. Broncos average vs TEs.

+
Why He's #8
  • Browns' only reliable pass catcher
  • Broncos middle-of-pack vs TEs
  • Jameis Winston loves TEs
  • High target share by default
  • TD upside in red zone
Matchup Analysis
Matchup Score 68.4/100
Projected Points 7-13 pts
Situation DECENT
VOLUME BY DEFAULT - OK START
9 TE

Dallas Goedert

PHI vs CHI
$0.0065 C+

Eagles run-heavy. Goedert gets limited targets. Bears tough vs TEs.

+
Why He's #9
  • Eagles VERY run-heavy offense
  • Targets limited - Saquon is the show
  • Bears solid vs TEs (10th-best)
  • TD dependent for upside
  • Talented but in wrong situation
Matchup Analysis
Matchup Score 60.2/100
Projected Points 5-10 pts
Touches LIMITED
TD DEPENDENT - RISKY
10 TE

Evan Engram

JAC BYE
$0.0055 BYE

ON BYE WEEK. Do not play.

+
Why He's #10
  • Jacksonville on BYE
  • Cannot score points this week
  • DO NOT PLAY
Matchup Analysis
Matchup Score N/A
Projected Points 0 pts
Status BYE
BYE WEEK - DO NOT PLAY
11 TE

Pat Freiermuth

PIT vs MIN
$0.0048 C

Vikings solid vs TEs. Steelers spread targets thin. Low ceiling play.

+
Why He's #11
  • Vikings solid vs TEs (12th-best)
  • Steelers added Pickens, DK Metcalf
  • Target share decreased
  • Russell Wilson spreads ball around
  • TD dependent - limited ceiling
Matchup Analysis
Matchup Score 55.3/100
Projected Points 4-9 pts
Targets SPLIT
LOW CEILING - AVOID
12 TE

Jake Ferguson

DAL vs KC
$0.0042 D+

Cowboys offense AWFUL. Cooper Rush limited. Chiefs tough vs TEs. FADE.

+
Why He's #12
  • Cowboys offense completely broken
  • Cooper Rush cannot move ball
  • Chiefs 8th-best vs TEs
  • No path to meaningful production
  • Avoid this dumpster fire
Matchup Analysis
Matchup Score 50.1/100
Projected Points 3-7 pts
Situation AWFUL
AVOID - BROKEN OFFENSE

Matchup Exploits

Target these vulnerable defenses for maximum upside

Bengals Defense

29th Run D | Worst TE D
Henry Andrews Chase Brown

Giants Defense

2-10 Record | League Worst
Maye Henderson Diggs H. Henry

Cowboys Defense

Can't Stop Anyone
Mahomes Rice Kelce

Commanders Defense

22+ PPG to QBs
Nix Sutton

Best Value Plays

Maximum upside at minimum price

$0.0121

Bo Nix

QB

Great matchup vs WAS, 9-2 team momentum

$0.0084

Chase Brown

RB

Hot streak, Ravens give up RB points

$0.0057

Zay Flowers

WR

Due for TDs, elite Bengals matchup

$0.0088

Hunter Henry

TE

Coming off 27.5 pts, faces Giants

$0.0092

TreVeyon Henderson

RB

Giants destroyed by RBs last week

Injury Watch

Key players to monitor before lock

Q

Lamar Jackson

Toe - Monitor closely
P

Patrick Mahomes

Groin - Should play
Q

Baker Mayfield

Shoulder - May miss
R

Josh Jacobs

Expected to return
R

Joe Burrow

Returning - Boosts Chase/Brown
L

Isiah Pacheco

Returning but limited role

Week 13 Schedule

Key games and times

🦃

Thursday, Nov 27

Thanksgiving
1:00 PM Lions vs Packers
4:30 PM Cowboys vs Chiefs
8:20 PM Ravens vs Bengals
🛒

Friday, Nov 28

Black Friday
3:00 PM Bears @ Eagles
🏈

Sunday, Nov 30

11 Games
1:00 PM 49ers @ Browns
1:00 PM Jaguars @ Titans
1:00 PM Texans @ Colts
1:00 PM Saints @ Dolphins
1:00 PM Falcons @ Jets
1:00 PM Cardinals @ Buccaneers
1:00 PM Rams @ Panthers
4:05 PM Vikings @ Seahawks
4:25 PM Bills @ Steelers
4:25 PM Raiders @ Chargers
8:20 PM Broncos @ Commanders (SNF)
🌙

Monday, Dec 1

MNF
8:15 PM Patriots vs Giants

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